LONDON: Shell plc has projected a sharp rise in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand, forecasting an increase of 54 to 68 per cent by 2040 and up to 85 per cent by 2050, driven largely by growing energy needs in Asia.
According to the company, global LNG demand is expected to climb from 422 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2025 to between 650 mtpa and 710 mtpa by 2040. Extending its outlook further, Shell estimates demand could reach between 610 mtpa and 780 mtpa by 2050.
The energy giant, currently the world’s largest LNG trader, also plans to expand its LNG sales by 4 to 5 per cent annually to meet the anticipated growth.
Shell noted that its latest projections remain subject to change due to ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly the Iran conflict, which has disrupted global oil and LNG trade flows.
The updated forecast comes amid increasing scrutiny from climate-focused investors. At Shell’s 2025 annual general meeting, a shareholder resolution led by Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility secured around 21 per cent support, calling on the company to justify its LNG growth strategy in the context of global climate targets.
The group of investors — including Brunel Pension Partnership, Greater Manchester Pension Fund, and Merseyside Pension Fund — urged Shell to clarify how its expansion plans align with its commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
In response, Shell defended its LNG strategy, describing the fuel as a critical “transition energy source” that can help balance future energy systems. The company emphasised that LNG projects remain competitive in terms of both cost and emissions.
While Shell acknowledged that overall global gas consumption could peak in the 2030s — and has already plateaued in regions such as Europe and Japan — it maintained that LNG demand is expected to continue growing globally, particularly in emerging Asian markets.
The company added that LNG is projected to account for more than half of the growth in global natural gas demand through 2040, with Asia contributing nearly 70 per cent of that increase.
The outlook underscores LNG’s evolving role in the global energy mix as countries seek cleaner alternatives to coal while managing the transition toward renewable energy sources.
By Reuters
